Views: 6 Author: Sanity Publish Time: 2023-07-21 Origin: 明泰铝业
At present, aluminum processing products are widely used in emerging fields such as high -speed rail, urban orbit, solar panels, electric vehicles and other fields. There is a gap between aluminum processing products in my country and its own needs. Low -end capacity is overcapacity, and high -end products need to be imported in large quantities. The aluminum industry faces both development opportunities and new challenges.
The continuous advancement of urbanization and industrialization in my country has provided a larger market space for the development of the aluminum industry. Developing strategic emerging industries, lightweight transportation, requires important support for the aluminum industry. The pace of reorganization of enterprises has accelerated, and the processing industry of coal, electricity and aluminum is integrated, adding new vitality to the development of the aluminum industry and facing better development opportunities.
1. Production of aluminum materials
The production of aluminum plate with foil in my country shows the high proportion of total production capacity in the world, and at the same time, the average capacity of enterprises is low and the scale advantages are not obvious. my country has a large total output of aluminum plate with foil and has become the country with the largest production capacity and output of aluminum bands and aluminum foil in the world. With the rapid development of my country's economy, my country's aluminum processing industry is also achieving leapfrog development and moving towards the world's aluminum processing power.
In the past ten years, the overall production of aluminum plate band materials in my country has been growing. From 2019 to 2021, the total output of aluminum plate with foil in my country is 15.36 million tons, 15.99 million tons, and 17.9 million tons. It has maintained a continuous growth trend. However, the average production capacity of aluminum plate with foil rolling industrial enterprises in my country is low, and the scale advantages are not obvious. According to statistics, the average production capacity of enterprises above the scale of aluminum plate belt in China is 59,000 tons, with an average output of 55,000 tons, and the average production capacity of aluminum plate belt enterprises in Europe and the United States is about 200,000 tons. The average production capacity of aluminum foil enterprises above the scale of China is 34,000 tons, with an average output of 31,000 tons. The average production capacity of aluminum foil enterprises in Europe and the United States is about 80,000 tons. The production scale of Chinese aluminum -rolled enterprises is significantly lower than the global average and lower than developed countries. In 2021, the export trade volume of aluminum plate belt in my country reached 3.9 million tons, and the import trade volume was 360,000 tons. From the perspective of imported main varieties, high -precision aluminum plate belts such as aviation plates and car body are the main products imported from aluminum plate belt in my country.
From 2019 to 2021, the output of aluminum materials in my country was 2.08 million tons, 21.38 million tons, and 220,200 tons, which are still in a continuous growth trend. With the continuous growth of China's macroeconomic economy, it is expected that the demand in the aluminum profile industry will continue to maintain a growth trend in the future.
2. Aluminum consumption situation
At present, the global aluminum plate is about 40 million tons. China is the world's largest consumer in the world, followed by the United States. With the strong demand for downstream industries such as domestic buildings, transportation, packaging, packaging, machinery, electronics, electrons, and electrical appliances, as well as the significant growth of various aluminum plate with foil products, the consumption of aluminum plate with foil has continued to increase. According to statistics, in 2021, the consumption of aluminum plate with foil with foil in my country reached 14.03 million tons, and the compound growth rate from 2016-2016 reached 7.46%.
In terms of the consumption structure of aluminum plate belt, ordinary traditional application areas, such as hardware aluminum products, durable consumer goods, building decoration, and aluminum foil ingredients, occupy nearly half of its total consumption. With the improvement of aluminum rolling technology and equipment, the acceleration of the high -end aluminum plate with the process of localization and the development of the high -end application market, the transportation industry represented by the car, the printed version of the CTP version of the base, and the consumption ratio of aluminum plates represented by Yilai can began to increase.
With the improvement of industrialization, the consumption of aluminum profiles in my country continues to grow, the consumption structure of industrial aluminum profiles is changing, and high -end aluminum consumption is rising significantly. Although my country is the largest consumer in the world in the world, there are large differences with developed countries in Europe and the United States in terms of consumer structure. The construction industry is the largest application area of aluminum in my country, accounting for 33%, followed by transportation, power, packaging, mechanical manufacturing, durable consumer goods and electronic communications, accounting for 21%, 12%, 10%, 8%, 8%, and 4%, respectively. Taking the United States as an example, transportation is the largest use of aluminum fields, accounting for 39%, while the construction field accounts for 25%, and the packaging field accounts for 16%.
auto industry:Since 2001, the Chinese automobile market has shown a high -speed growth trend. From 2001 to 2010, the average annual compound growth rate of automobile production and sales reached 25.69%and 25.37%, respectively. The average annual compound growth rate of automobile production and sales from 2011 to 2020 fell to 3.28%and 3.43%, respectively. In 2021, the whole year of automobiles showed a stable and increased development trend, ending the situation of declining three consecutive years since 2018. The annual car production and sales have completed 26.08 million and 26.28 million, respectively, and the production and sales increased by 7.03%and 6.45%, respectively.
After years of high -speed growth in my country's automotive industry, China's automobile industry has entered a stable growth cycle. It is expected that my country's automotive industry will still maintain a large -scale development trend of production and sales in the next decade. The automotive industry is an industry with more aluminum. Due to the characteristics of low density and strong energy absorption capacity with low density and unit quality, aluminum alloys are the first choice for car lightweight. Automotive lightweight technology includes the application of lightweight and lightweight materials for structural design.
Studies have shown that when the quality of the entire vehicle is reduced by 10%, the fuel economy increases by 6-8%, the acceleration time is reduced by 8%, the braking distance decreases by 5%, the steering force is reduced by 6%, the carbon dioxide emissions decreased by 4.5%, and the tire life increased by 7%. With the increasingly stricter of emission regulations, the pace of lightweight automobiles has accelerated significantly, which will make high -end aluminum consumption expand rapidly.
Railway industry and urban rail transit: Railway, as the main transportation means for domestic materials and long -distance passengers, will maintain a high -speed development trend in the future. In 2021, the national railway business mileage reached 150,000 kilometers, of which the high -speed railway business mileage exceeded 40,000 kilometers, which basically reached or exceeded the expected target of the railway "13th Five -Year Plan" plan. According to the national and long -term railway network planning, it is expected that by 2025, the scale of the railway network will reach about 175,000 kilometers.
The national economic and social development "14th Five -Five " plan pointed out that it is necessary to build a fast network in the future, basically connect with "eight vertical eight horizontal " high -speed railways, promote the integration of urban agglomeration in urban groups, accelerate the construction of intercity railways, urban (suburban) railways, and orderly promote the development of urban rail transit. It is foreseeable that with the significant increase in the mileage of the National Express Railway Network, it will bring huge demand to the vehicle market of the rail transit equipment. At present, 44 cities across the country have approved the construction of urban rail transit lines, with a total investment of 2.4 trillion yuan. The total length of the planning and construction line will also exceed the total mileage of the operation line.
With the continuous improvement of my country's urbanization level and the scale of urban population, there is still huge development space for rail transits such as subways, light rails, trams, and magnetic suspension. The great development of urban rail transit will inevitably bring huge market demand for rail vehicles and aluminum profiles.
Construction industry:The application of aluminum profiles in the construction field is mainly reflected in aluminum alloy doors and windows, curtain walls, etc. At present, the construction industry accounts for about 33%of aluminum consumption. The construction industry is closely related to the development of the entire country's economy and the improvement of people's lives. Although the government has regulated and controlled the real estate industry in recent years, and the price limit such as real estate has made investment demand significantly curb, affected by factors such as limited price housing and large increase in housing area, the national real estate development investment in 2020 was about 1.5 trillion yuan, an increase of 4.4%over the last year. As my country is a developing country, the construction of urbanization and improving the living conditions of the people will take a long time. The demand for aluminum in the process of urbanization will still maintain a growth trend.
In general, in addition to traditional industries, the demand for aluminum alloy products such as high -end equipment manufacturing, aerospace, and rail transit is gradually increasing. Although the demand for traditional industries has slowed down, emerging industries will drive the terminal demand for aluminum products to a certain extent, accelerate the technology transformation and the elimination of low -end processing industries.
